Introduction: UK GDP report coming up
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets, and the world economy.
We’re about to learn how the UK economy fared during “Awful April”.
The latest GDP report, due at 7am BST, will show whether or not the UK managed to keep growing during a month dominated by Donald Trump’s trade war, which also brought a jump in bills for consumers, and the rise in employer national insurance contributions.
Economists predict a slowdown – indeed, the consensus forecast among City number crunchers is that GDP fell by 0.1% in April.
That would be a disappointment, after the UK economy made a decent start to 2025, growing by 0.7% in the first quarter of the year.
Deutsche Bank predict the economy stagnated in April, with their chief UK economy Sanjay Raja explaining:
By all accounts there are likely to be some volatile swings – particularly when it comes to manufacturing. Some negative pay-back in the services sector too, we think, is very possible.
The good news? Better weather will have likely helped output in general, especially within consumer-facing services.
So far this year, the UK economy was flat in January, then grew by 0.5% in February, and by 0.2% in March.
Investors will also be digesting yesterday’s UK spending review, in which chancellor Rachel Reeves outlined billions of pounds of infrastructure spending. Health and defence were the priority, but other areas will face a tough squeeze on funding.
The agenda
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7am BST: UK GDP report for April
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7am BST: UK trade balance for April
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1.30pm BST: US weekly jobless claims report
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1.30pm BST: US PPI index of producer prices for May
